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<big draggable="bgOf1RN"></big> 2024-12-14 11:15:32

It stands to reason that everyone has their own operating system and suitable model for investment, and Honghuo has no right to interfere. But there are some words, as a friend, Honghuo feels it is necessary to say. Ordinary investors who want to make money in the stock market never rely on various small decisions every day. The essence of this small decision is that you think you can gain an advantage in the market game by news and discipline, and you can predict the short-term market.In a bull market, the market is full of liquidity and investors have a high risk appetite, and the stock price is generally higher than the intrinsic value. In a bear market, expectations are pessimistic and liquidity is exhausted, and the stock price is generally lower than the intrinsic value. Although the stock price will deviate from the intrinsic value most of the time, the stock price is infinitely close to the intrinsic value for a long time.Now the market pricing power is still in the hands of hot money+quantification+retail investors. Hot money pulls demon stocks, robots, AI and other themes every day, and it's fun to play; Quantifying the direction of pulling small-cap stocks and low-priced stocks every day also earns a lot of money. The institution is very embarrassed, and it is still in the negative cycle of locking up-redemption-selling to deal with redemption-continuing to lock up. Occasionally, one day, the institutions will explode and usher in a greater redemption. They can only continue to sell and bear the stigma of smashing the plate.


Take the monthly index in the above figure as an example to illustrate:In the past two months, domestic capital has flowed out by more than 1.5 trillion yuan. There are mainly three types of funds flowing out. First, some new investors who came in in October stopped playing. The second is that institutional funds run away, and the third is the reduction of industrial capital+size. In a word, institutions must be one of the forces of market smashing. This round of market is not that institutions don't believe in bull market, but that people don't believe in institutions. If they can't get money, they naturally have no market pricing power.Take the monthly index in the above figure as an example to illustrate:


3. From September to December, MACD crosses the 0 axis from underwater, which is a signal that the trend turns from weak to strong;Good morning, old irons, I am your red fire! Investment has logic, trading has methods, here is the logic and actual combat you want most!As soon as the data came out, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December rose to 97.7%, and there was basically no suspense! The fed's continued interest rate cuts will naturally help our monetary policy to be more relaxed, which is good for the big A!

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